Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 128,145
2 South Dakota 122,363
3 Utah 108,118
4 Rhode Island 108,025
5 Tennessee 104,447
6 Arizona 104,218
7 Wisconsin 101,699
8 Iowa 101,236
9 Nebraska 98,681
10 Oklahoma 98,426
11 Arkansas 97,842
12 Kansas 95,298
13 Alabama 93,742
14 Indiana 93,549
15 Mississippi 92,401
16 Idaho 91,077
17 Nevada 90,404
18 Wyoming 89,695
19 Illinois 88,895
20 Montana 87,914
21 Louisiana 86,178
22 South Carolina 86,115
23 California 84,116
24 Georgia 83,377
25 New Mexico 83,012
26 Kentucky 82,113
27 Texas 81,915
28 Minnesota 81,898
29 Missouri 80,397
30 Delaware 80,174
31 Florida 80,146
32 New Jersey 78,452
33 Ohio 76,634
34 Massachusetts 76,028
35 Alaska 73,795
36 New York 73,002
37 North Carolina 72,458
38 Connecticut 70,127
39 Colorado 68,962
40 West Virginia 67,517
41 Pennsylvania 66,258
42 Michigan 60,940
43 Virginia 59,138
44 Maryland 58,661
45 District of Columbia 52,245
46 New Hampshire 48,315
47 Washington 41,467
48 Puerto Rico 39,840
49 Oregon 33,766
50 Maine 29,254
51 Vermont 19,175
52 Hawaii 18,212

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 790
2 Oklahoma 677
3 New York 634
4 New Jersey 583
5 North Carolina 583
6 Arizona 577
7 Delaware 539
8 Florida 524
9 Texas 518
10 Kentucky 513
11 Mississippi 506
12 Georgia 504
13 Arkansas 487
14 Massachusetts 478
15 Alabama 469
16 Pennsylvania 467
17 West Virginia 453
18 Utah 434
19 Virginia 433
20 California 432
21 Tennessee 430
22 Louisiana 409
23 New Mexico 372
24 Nevada 359
25 New Hampshire 352
26 District of Columbia 349
27 Ohio 344
28 Indiana 331
29 Maryland 315
30 Montana 294
31 Wyoming 277
32 Wisconsin 261
33 Iowa 241
34 Vermont 236
35 Kansas 234
36 Missouri 216
37 Maine 215
38 Rhode Island 215
39 Alaska 210
40 Nebraska 199
41 Illinois 196
42 Minnesota 187
43 South Dakota 171
44 Idaho 167
45 Washington 163
46 Colorado 142
47 North Dakota 142
48 Oregon 129
49 Connecticut 117
50 Michigan 115
51 Puerto Rico 113
52 Hawaii 76

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,418
2 New York 2,219
3 Massachusetts 2,114
4 Rhode Island 2,033
5 Mississippi 2,031
6 South Dakota 2,009
7 Connecticut 1,976
8 Louisiana 1,905
9 North Dakota 1,898
10 Arizona 1,802
11 Pennsylvania 1,696
12 Illinois 1,677
13 Arkansas 1,613
14 Alabama 1,567
15 New Mexico 1,566
16 Iowa 1,553
17 Michigan 1,553
18 Indiana 1,481
19 Tennessee 1,399
20 Nevada 1,386
21 South Carolina 1,367
22 Georgia 1,297
23 Kansas 1,297
24 District of Columbia 1,293
25 Texas 1,284
26 Florida 1,232
27 Maryland 1,178
28 Missouri 1,169
29 Montana 1,154
30 West Virginia 1,129
31 Delaware 1,119
32 Minnesota 1,111
33 Wisconsin 1,105
34 Nebraska 1,039
35 California 1,035
36 Wyoming 1,029
37 Colorado 991
38 Idaho 966
39 Ohio 956
40 Oklahoma 896
41 North Carolina 894
42 Kentucky 890
43 New Hampshire 777
44 Virginia 757
45 Washington 573
46 Puerto Rico 572
47 Utah 519
48 Oregon 467
49 Maine 438
50 Alaska 345
51 Hawaii 287
52 Vermont 278

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Iowa 38
2 Alabama 23
3 Arizona 11
4 California 11
5 Georgia 11
6 Massachusetts 11
7 Mississippi 11
8 Oklahoma 10
9 Tennessee 10
10 Arkansas 9
11 New Mexico 9
12 New York 9
13 Pennsylvania 9
14 Texas 9
15 Kentucky 8
16 Louisiana 8
17 Nevada 8
18 New Hampshire 8
19 North Carolina 8
20 South Carolina 8
21 West Virginia 7
22 Florida 6
23 Kansas 6
24 Montana 6
25 New Jersey 6
26 Virginia 6
27 Delaware 5
28 District of Columbia 5
29 Maine 5
30 South Dakota 5
31 Wisconsin 5
32 Illinois 4
33 Indiana 4
34 Maryland 4
35 Michigan 4
36 Ohio 4
37 Utah 4
38 Minnesota 3
39 Rhode Island 3
40 Colorado 2
41 Connecticut 2
42 Nebraska 2
43 North Dakota 2
44 Oregon 2
45 Puerto Rico 2
46 Missouri 1
47 Vermont 1
48 Washington 1
49 Alaska 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 Idaho 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 297,476 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 245,439 2 99
Dewey South Dakota 235,743 3 99
Lake Tennessee 235,462 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 234,260 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 120,930 251 92
Richland South Carolina 86,218 1349 57
York South Carolina 78,974 1718 45
Orange California 77,456 1783 43
Pierce Washington 38,898 2894 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 3 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,452 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,053 1917 38
Richland South Carolina 1,020 1971 37
Orange California 964 2043 34
York South Carolina 904 2119 32
Pierce Washington 516 2650 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons